It's been awhile, for no other reason than no time. Going forward, every effort will be made to post two or three times each week with financial commentary. Here is what I wrote the other day:
Here is my take on the bank stocks.
BAC, single digits soon. Will be reporting more losses for next two quarters. Also, will be cutting the dividend again.
USB, mid teens (yep, several problems with credit card debt and more write downs coming!) But dividend is probably safe.
Wells Fargo, also mid teens as they are finally forced to write down some CDO and MBS.
Citi, down by half from yesterday's close, around 2.50, maybe lower.
Here is the skinny on the overall market.
DOW – Will revisit the 7,392.27 closing low last fall, falling another 10% from today. If it breaks through the low, look for another 5% to 10% additional drop. It might rally off the lows, and you can look to play that in the short term.
One interesting way to play this market is to buy index ETF's as the DOW, S&P 500 and NASDAQ fall. A good guide is to buy on 10% drops, then sell the ETF's into 20% rallies. It has worked for the last six months (unbelievable in this market, but it was a good play.) The reason this works is because you get bull market rally's within the bear market drops. And the drops tend to be smaller than the upswings (until the drop becomes a giant drop!).
Overall, 2009 will be as bad, or worse than 2008. Everything has shut down as banks desperately try to deleverage from 35:1 debt ratio's down to somewhere around 12:1 debt ratios.
